Prairie Meadows opens their 22nd season of racing this evening. Perennial leading rider Terry Thompson returns (after a year hiatus riding at Delaware Park) and young Jenna Joubert has also moved her tack there from Oaklawn. Des Moines Register has a good article on the top races in history run at Prairie:
Friday, April 22, 2011
Monday, April 18, 2011
Keeneland Grade I Stakes Results on Polytrack
Jeremy Plonk has a nice article in the Keeneland spring program with headline of "Don't let the big races fool you" with a smaller secondary headline under stating "Longshots in Grade 1 races belie true picture of winners on Polytrack".
Obviously since this is written for the Keeneland program, no bad word on Polytrack would be expected in the article. The main argument is that Polytrack is a very formful surface with favorites winning 31% of races (stats through last Fall's meeting) since the Polytrack Era began at the Fall 2006 meeting. Favorites won 41% of races on the Polytrack at the 2010 Fall meeting but currently (through April 17) winning only 20.7% at the Spring meeting.
There is prominent attention paid to the great exception of all this - the results of Grade 1 races on Polytrack. Here are the stats for Grade I races on Polytrack at Keeneland through the Blue Grass last Saturday:
Total Races - 27
Winning Favorites - 1
Percentage of Winning Favorites - 3.7%
2011 Grade I winners on Polytrack at Keeneland
Ashland - Lilacs and Lace paid $99.40
Madison - Shotgun Gulch paid $25.40
Blue Grass - Brilliant Speed paid $40.20
The only favorite to win Grade I on Polytrack at Keeneland was Wickedly Perfect winning the 2010 Alcibiades last fall.
A few final comments on this article - which is very good and there should be more like it that are statistically based:
1) The fact favorites are winning at a greater rate on the Polytrack is very likely due to handicappers becoming more familiar with the surface and it's similarity closer to turf racing than dirt racing.
2) Keeneland has taken their greatest race - the Blue Grass - and made it irreverent as a prep for the Derby due to Polytrack.
3) Every track should have a Polycapping database like Keeneland has on their website.
4) It would be interesting to see a similar study on other Polytrack sites like Arlington, Del Mar and Woodbine.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Final Day at Oaklawn
Arkansas Derby Day ends the 85th racing season at Oaklawn Park today. The usual throng of 50,000 plus will storm the gates of the old Central Avenue plant making Hot Springs temporarily the second most populated city in Arkansas after Little Rock.
Favorites are winning approximately 31% of the races this season at the Spa - down from 41% of favorites in 2003 according to the Arkansas Gazette-Democrat website. Oaklawn is my favorite track to bet especially in the opening two months of the season with full fields and horses running from all parts of the country.
Oaklawn to me means racing consistency. The season will begin in mid-late January, it will end three weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby, Terry Wallace will always be at the mike and will put a goofy hat on at least once during the meet. He will pause prior to announcing the track condition and wear a tuxedo on Arkansas Derby Day. There is always a Cella running the track and usually running horses there too. Oaklawn and Keeneland are the only tracks I know that on the first day of the meeting show the replays from the previous meeting (for Oaklawn, these are races nine months previous). The weather in the final six weeks of the meeting is usually beautiful springtime weather. Stanley Roberts, Don Von Hemel, Gary Hartlage, Scooter Dickey, Lynn Whiting, Jinks Fires and Bob Holthus always have a winner during the meeting. The racing surface during the Racing Festival of the South will be lightning fast favoring speed. The exotica wagering menu will drive you crazy with only a few races with superfectas - I discussed this with Mel Brooks in a Vegas racebook once who couldn't believe they didn't have more supers.
Keeneland's consistency ended with Polytrack. They have ruined a great American race - the Blue Grass Stakes. I don't enjoy wagering on Keeneland nearly as much as I once did.
The Oaklawn simulcast feed is showing the crowd ontrack today - that's another great thing about Hot Springs - the area supports the track throughout the meeting ending with today's huge crowd.
Arkansas Derby Day ends the 85th racing season at Oaklawn Park today. The usual throng of 50,000 plus will storm the gates of the old Central Avenue plant making Hot Springs temporarily the second most populated city in Arkansas after Little Rock.
Favorites are winning approximately 31% of the races this season at the Spa - down from 41% of favorites in 2003 according to the Arkansas Gazette-Democrat website. Oaklawn is my favorite track to bet especially in the opening two months of the season with full fields and horses running from all parts of the country.
Oaklawn to me means racing consistency. The season will begin in mid-late January, it will end three weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby, Terry Wallace will always be at the mike and will put a goofy hat on at least once during the meet. He will pause prior to announcing the track condition and wear a tuxedo on Arkansas Derby Day. There is always a Cella running the track and usually running horses there too. Oaklawn and Keeneland are the only tracks I know that on the first day of the meeting show the replays from the previous meeting (for Oaklawn, these are races nine months previous). The weather in the final six weeks of the meeting is usually beautiful springtime weather. Stanley Roberts, Don Von Hemel, Gary Hartlage, Scooter Dickey, Lynn Whiting, Jinks Fires and Bob Holthus always have a winner during the meeting. The racing surface during the Racing Festival of the South will be lightning fast favoring speed. The exotica wagering menu will drive you crazy with only a few races with superfectas - I discussed this with Mel Brooks in a Vegas racebook once who couldn't believe they didn't have more supers.
Keeneland's consistency ended with Polytrack. They have ruined a great American race - the Blue Grass Stakes. I don't enjoy wagering on Keeneland nearly as much as I once did.
The Oaklawn simulcast feed is showing the crowd ontrack today - that's another great thing about Hot Springs - the area supports the track throughout the meeting ending with today's huge crowd.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Turf Publicists of America
Racetracks need turf publicists. There are virtually no newspaper dedicated turf writers anymore (i.e. reporters who cover racing exclusively) outside of the newspapers in Lexington and Louisville (I'm not even sure about Louisville). When you have two declining industries together - newspapers and horse racing - this is what results.
I find this very sad since without turf writers covers the racing scene on a daily basis, we only have racetrack turf publicists to rely on to dig up and generate interesting stories on horse racing. NYRA and the California tracks post regular turf notes on their websites and they provide a daily glimpse into the racetracks and upcoming stakes races. It is inconceivable that a daily sport like baseball would be in a similar situation - no one covering the sport on a regular basis to provide human and equine interest stories and report on milestone events in the sport.
Robert Holthus' win with Fifth Avenue South in the first race at Oaklawn Park last week had to be a milestone of some sort - allowing Holthus to continue with saddling a winner at Oaklawn since sometime in the 1960's (probably 1964). The only media mention of this that I have found is on Arkansas Online - the website of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette of Little Rock. Even the Oaklawn website had no mention of this milestone. Incredible. Holthus has been a fixture at the track for decades and deserves better recognition for continuing to saddle winners amidst health issues at the age of 76.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Saturday, April 09, 2011
Uncle Mo Loss in the Wood - Where On Derby Trail Are We Now?
There have been 136 previous preparatory seasons to the Kentucky Derby (aka the Derby Trail). This year on May 7 we will celebrate Derby 137. There also was a Derby Trail in some of the years previous to origination of the Kentucky Derby in 1875. The first Derby Trail article that I have found was in the New York Times in the spring of 1864 previewing the racers preparing for America's first Derby - the Jersey Derby - held at the new race course at Paterson, NJ. The 1864 crop of three year olds was outstanding featuring sire Lexington's great triumvirate - Kentucky, Norfolk, and Asteroid.
So we have a rich American Derby Trail history without even considering the history of other global Derbies run at Epsom or Chantilly. The past can be categorized and analyzed based on patterns of previous results. It is obvious that the Derby Trail that we are now living and examining can be called "Two Year Old Champion and Heavy Winter Book Favorite Loses Final Prep Race".
The most obvious historical comparison is Secretariat's Derby year of 1973 when he also ran third in the 47th running of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 21, 1973 to his stablemate Angle Light (entry went off at 3-10) with Sham running a close second beaten by a head. Expect NBC to highlight this "Angle" during their pre-race coverage in four weeks (after they have exhausted interviewing all B-List celebrities at Churchill).
Perusing Champions (great book of historic past performances that DRF Press should continually update and expand upon), I found other relevant examples:
1936 - Pompoon was 2 year old champion and started his three year old campaign with a neck win in the Paumonok Handicap against older horses (for many years the traditional stake race to open the New York racing season at Jamaica). Pompoon then ran fifth in the Wood Memorial as 3-5 favs - he would go off at 8-1 in the Derby and run 2nd to Lawrin whose successful Florida winter campaign was the first to lead to Derby glory.
1939 - El Chico was the undefeated 2 year old champion and heavy winter book favorite for the Derby. El Chico made his three year old debut in an allowance race at Aqueduct on April 15 running second beaten a nose as part of 1-5 favored entry. He subsequently was impeded on the first turn and never a factor in the Wood Memorial that Belair Stud's Johnstown won by eight lengths as 1-2 favorite. His running line reads "quit" in posting a sixth in the Derby at 8-1. The great columnist John Lardner foresaw these events in a column published on March 8 predicting Johnstown subsequent Derby win.
1961 - Carry Back took over as Derby favorite in the fall of his 2 year old campaign after leading two year old Hail to Reason was retired due to injury on September 18 and victories in Cowdin, Garden State and Remsen. He ran six times in Florida (yes, hard to believe compared to Mo's ridiculous one race farce) winning the Flamingo and the Florida Derby. He was shipped to New York and ran 2nd as even money favorite in the Wood. He bounced back to win the Derby two weeks later.
Overall, historic patterns looks pretty good for Uncle Mo as long as he stays healthy and makes the trip to Churchill. Three of the four similar Winter Book favorites ran first or second in the Derby after losing their final prep in the Wood. I would think there are some similar results with a Winter Book favorite losing final Derby prep in the Derby Trial but I wasn't able to find one in Champions.
There have been 136 previous preparatory seasons to the Kentucky Derby (aka the Derby Trail). This year on May 7 we will celebrate Derby 137. There also was a Derby Trail in some of the years previous to origination of the Kentucky Derby in 1875. The first Derby Trail article that I have found was in the New York Times in the spring of 1864 previewing the racers preparing for America's first Derby - the Jersey Derby - held at the new race course at Paterson, NJ. The 1864 crop of three year olds was outstanding featuring sire Lexington's great triumvirate - Kentucky, Norfolk, and Asteroid.
So we have a rich American Derby Trail history without even considering the history of other global Derbies run at Epsom or Chantilly. The past can be categorized and analyzed based on patterns of previous results. It is obvious that the Derby Trail that we are now living and examining can be called "Two Year Old Champion and Heavy Winter Book Favorite Loses Final Prep Race".
The most obvious historical comparison is Secretariat's Derby year of 1973 when he also ran third in the 47th running of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 21, 1973 to his stablemate Angle Light (entry went off at 3-10) with Sham running a close second beaten by a head. Expect NBC to highlight this "Angle" during their pre-race coverage in four weeks (after they have exhausted interviewing all B-List celebrities at Churchill).
Perusing Champions (great book of historic past performances that DRF Press should continually update and expand upon), I found other relevant examples:
1936 - Pompoon was 2 year old champion and started his three year old campaign with a neck win in the Paumonok Handicap against older horses (for many years the traditional stake race to open the New York racing season at Jamaica). Pompoon then ran fifth in the Wood Memorial as 3-5 favs - he would go off at 8-1 in the Derby and run 2nd to Lawrin whose successful Florida winter campaign was the first to lead to Derby glory.
1939 - El Chico was the undefeated 2 year old champion and heavy winter book favorite for the Derby. El Chico made his three year old debut in an allowance race at Aqueduct on April 15 running second beaten a nose as part of 1-5 favored entry. He subsequently was impeded on the first turn and never a factor in the Wood Memorial that Belair Stud's Johnstown won by eight lengths as 1-2 favorite. His running line reads "quit" in posting a sixth in the Derby at 8-1. The great columnist John Lardner foresaw these events in a column published on March 8 predicting Johnstown subsequent Derby win.
1961 - Carry Back took over as Derby favorite in the fall of his 2 year old campaign after leading two year old Hail to Reason was retired due to injury on September 18 and victories in Cowdin, Garden State and Remsen. He ran six times in Florida (yes, hard to believe compared to Mo's ridiculous one race farce) winning the Flamingo and the Florida Derby. He was shipped to New York and ran 2nd as even money favorite in the Wood. He bounced back to win the Derby two weeks later.
Overall, historic patterns looks pretty good for Uncle Mo as long as he stays healthy and makes the trip to Churchill. Three of the four similar Winter Book favorites ran first or second in the Derby after losing their final prep in the Wood. I would think there are some similar results with a Winter Book favorite losing final Derby prep in the Derby Trial but I wasn't able to find one in Champions.
Prohibitive Derby Favorite Loses and No One Cares
Not only has horse racing lost all mainstream national television coverage during the current Derby Trail season but it has obviously lost any relevance at all until Kentucky Derby Day on May 7. The undefeated two year old champion and Kentucky Derby winter book favorite Uncle Mo was defeated today in the Wood Memorial as the 1-10 favorite. This event has not been noticed according to my review of the past of few hours on the following websites: ESPN, NY Times, CBS Sports and Fox Sports. It is the thirteenth of 13 Top Stories linked to on the Sports Illustrated website.
I fondly recall the thrill of watching countless Derby preps on the national networks in my youth of the 1970's and 1980's when it would be unimaginable that races such as the Florida Derby, the Wood, Blue Grass or the Santa Anita Derby would not be televised nationally. The sport of horse racing in the United States has been reduced to a two week season of national prominence (Kentucky Derby Day to Preakness Day) with the only exception being years when the Derby winner wins the Preakness and three more weeks of exposure through the Belmont Stakes.
I do understand the myriad of alternative options that people have to watch these events. But that doesn't hide the fact that this sport has lost all relevance with the general public outside of the two week Triple Crown window and industry geographic strongholds like Kentucky, Saratoga Springs, and Del Mar.
Not only has horse racing lost all mainstream national television coverage during the current Derby Trail season but it has obviously lost any relevance at all until Kentucky Derby Day on May 7. The undefeated two year old champion and Kentucky Derby winter book favorite Uncle Mo was defeated today in the Wood Memorial as the 1-10 favorite. This event has not been noticed according to my review of the past of few hours on the following websites: ESPN, NY Times, CBS Sports and Fox Sports. It is the thirteenth of 13 Top Stories linked to on the Sports Illustrated website.
I fondly recall the thrill of watching countless Derby preps on the national networks in my youth of the 1970's and 1980's when it would be unimaginable that races such as the Florida Derby, the Wood, Blue Grass or the Santa Anita Derby would not be televised nationally. The sport of horse racing in the United States has been reduced to a two week season of national prominence (Kentucky Derby Day to Preakness Day) with the only exception being years when the Derby winner wins the Preakness and three more weeks of exposure through the Belmont Stakes.
I do understand the myriad of alternative options that people have to watch these events. But that doesn't hide the fact that this sport has lost all relevance with the general public outside of the two week Triple Crown window and industry geographic strongholds like Kentucky, Saratoga Springs, and Del Mar.
Bob Holthus Wins Again at Oaklawn Park
Bob Holthus - longtime leading trainer at Oaklawn - broke his O for 18 duck for the meeting today with a win by Fifth Avenue South in the first race paying $31.40.
Holthus has been winning races at Oaklawn since the early sixties - he has probably won a race at every meeting since 1964. Of course I doubt Oaklawn has any statistics on this - it will be interesting if they post anything on their website on this accomplishment.
Flat Bet Profit on all Jenna Joubert Mounts at Oaklawn
Jenna won her third race at Oaklawn on Sunday, April 3 scoring on an Arkansas bred first timer trained by David Morris who went off at 38-1! As of the end of racing at Oaklawn on Friday, April 8, Jenna's stats for the meeting were the following:
63 mounts 3 wins - 2 seconds - 7 thirds total purse money won $97,276
Equibase based statistics
A flat $2 bet on each of Jenna's mounts for the meeting would yield a positive return of $62.20 for a 49% percent return on investment! This is better than buying gold these days!
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